House conservatives are putting Speaker Mike Johnson on notice: He has work to do if he wants to keep his job.
The Louisiana Republican is at his weakest point after he was caught between President-elect Donald Trump, Elon Musk and the right flank of his party in a bruising fight over spending that just barely averted a government shutdown.
That came at the most inopportune moment possible for Johnson, with the speakership vote exactly two weeks away. One Republican has already vowed to oppose him, and he can’t afford to lose another due to his incredibly thin majority. Several others have publicly warned they aren’t on board yet as they’ve fumed about how he handled a stopgap spending bill.
“My advice to the speaker would be: You’ve probably got some bridges to mend, spend the holidays reaching out to members and address their concerns,” said Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.). “I think he needs to work the phones.”
Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said in a statement after the spending vote that “I am now undecided on what House leadership should look like.” And Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) said that he is going to use the two-week break to “ruminate on … what’s happened since he’s taken over.” He added that he doesn’t intend to announce how he’ll vote on Jan. 3 in advance, but that the funding battle was “a disaster.”
And in a further worrying sign for Johnson, it wasn’t just his typical regular rabble rousers who were signaling their dissatisfaction about how he navigated the funding fight. More mainstream members were exasperated that he put forward a nearly 1,550-page funding bill negotiated with Democrats, pulled it after the president-elect publicly excoriated it, and then moved forward on a Trump-backed bill on Thursday with little warning to his members.
“There’s zero communication from leadership to the membership. And it’s very frustrating and something needs to change before Jan. 3 here,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) told reporters Friday. “We need a clear understanding of how we’re going to do things next session because what is happening right now is completely unacceptable.”
A speaker fight would not only be disastrous for Johnson, but would also overshadow the Republican Party’s priorities at the worst time. The GOP is aiming to get ambitious pieces of legislation on the border and energy through Congress in the first 100 days of the new administration. Though Trump publicly broke with Johnson on his first spending plan, he has also privately warned lawmakers in recent weeks not to do anything that delays his agenda.
Some Republicans are expressing hopes that there isn’t another speakership fight, believing it would kill some momentum they have with voters off the election and that it would make them look chaotic.
“None of us are walking in his shoes, so it's maybe a bit easy to criticize, but his situation does deserve a careful look at what he's trying to do,” said Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), an appropriator. “A little time away has a way of healing some of that frustration and some of that angst, and we'll see when we come back if it persists. There are some pretty determined people in our conference and it's a thin majority, so I would speculate that it's not automatic.”
Johnson did ultimately manage on Friday evening to get a government funding bill through the House by a large margin, despite the days of drama. And he kept Republican defections down to just 34 votes — a number that seemed unthinkable just 48 hours ago. Now, he has two weeks to hope that tempers will cool down.
His fate is, at least partially, in Trump’s hands. Trump can’t guarantee Johnson will get speaker — the president-elect already endorsed him in mid-November, and conservatives are still threatening to oppose him — but if Trump pulls that endorsement, Johnson could be in major trouble.
“I think it'll be fine unless Trump comes out against him,” said Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio).
Some Trump allies are signaling that the incoming president won’t waste political capital to save Johnson if he does face a challenger or starts to flounder internally — and Trump himself made an open threat this week about his political future. Some members of Johnson’s right flank are publicly floating alternatives.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a House Freedom Caucus member, pointed to Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) as two members who have “potential” to replace Johnson if he flails, though he questioned if either of them would want the role and if they could do any better than Johnson. But Norman isn’t ready to say the speaker has lost his support. Rather, he has a warning.
“There would have to be some changes. Don't let this happen again,” said Norman, calling this week “contentious.”
Some Republicans viewed the chaotic week as a test run for Johnson’s ability to manage his conference and coordinate with Trump next year, when the party will be under intense pressure to deliver ambitious priorities, given they control the federal government trifecta. Many said it shows that not only Johnson, but also the broader conference, still has work to do.
“We’ve got to organize ourselves to be ahead of these things. We know what’s coming. We know that we’re going to have tough choices to make. … So we need to organize. We need to move. We need lots of work over Christmas,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), while declining to discuss the speaker race.
Davidson added, “I think it'll be time for a good after-action review. Well, I have some frustrations. And I think I kind of look at all of this as pre-season, in a sense, for the next Congress.”
“So, as the team is getting used to working together, I’d be curious what the collaboration was like with President Trump,” Davidson said.
Johnson does have some factors working his favor. Despite the eruption over the spending bill, he’s spent months trying to appease his right flank, giving him some chips to play and a path back into their good graces.
“He’ll be fine. He's got widespread support among the conference, and he's a fighter, and he has shown that over the course of this latest process. And we need a fighter to help implement the Trump agenda,” said Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus.
Plus, there is a strong desire for the party to avoid another speakership fight like they saw with the 15 ballots it took to elect Kevin McCarthy two years ago. The three-week search for his successor, when the House was held in paralysis after he was ousted, has also scarred the conference.
“I don't want to see the shit-show we had last year. And so if Johnson is our guy, I’ll vote for Johnson. If it tanks, then Scalise pops up, then we will have to reevaluate it,” said Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), a House Freedom Caucus member. “The best thing for the Republican Party is for us just to get it done and get to work. I think the disaster this week is a dangerous prelude to what could come if we don't get very active and work as a team.”
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