GREENSBORO, North Carolina — Nowhere is Trump spending more time in his final three days on the campaign trail than North Carolina, the only of the seven battleground states that he won four years ago.
His rally here Saturday night was the second of four that Trump is holding in the state during the last weekend of his campaign, one event more than what he has booked in the all-important Pennsylvania.
“When you’re winning by a lot, you can still lose by a little,” Trump said, back at the same event complex where he held a rally just last week — although in a larger, albeit half-empty, arena this time. “And we can't take a chance of losing the great state of North Carolina.”
Holding four events here is a decision that has raised eyebrows among political operatives on both sides of the aisle, and prompted jeers from Democrats about what they claim must be Trump’s weakened status in North Carolina. Even well-connected Republican operatives here, including those working alongside the Trump campaign, have privately said the decision is slightly puzzling — despite welcoming the extra attention — believing that Trump is in a strong position here.
Trump’s advisers maintain that they are ahead in the Sun Belt states, among other battlegrounds, but that there’s no reason to take a risk here, citing lingering uncertainty surrounding turnout in the hurricane-ravaged western part of the state, among other reasons to quadruple down.
“If one state could bite us in the ass, it’s North Carolina,” said one Trump campaign official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the strategy.
And the Trump campaign’s decisions on where to go are “driven by data” on how they can strategically maximize their supporters’ turnout, the official said, a notion echoed by campaign aides throughout the race on how they determine rally locations.
Another reason? North Carolina is a place where Trump’s campaign has been able to consistently pack venues — an important optics consideration in the final 72 hours before Election Day, the Trump official added. Their bet on booking the bigger building at the Greensboro Complex appeared to be short-sighted, however, with the entire upper level of seating covered by black curtains and the back of the arena remaining empty throughout the rally.
“She thinks she’s coming for our country, and she thinks she is coming through North Carolina to do it, but we are not going to let that happen,” said Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.). “North Carolina is the last line of defense for Donald J. Trump and for our whole country.”
And absent from all of Trump’s rallies here the last two months has been North Carolina Republicans’ top statewide nominee, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who is running for governor. Trump, who endorsed Robinson in the primary and previously praised him as “Martin Luther King on steroids,” now all but pretends he doesn't exist, after reports in September about lewd posts Robinson allegedly made on online pornography forums.
“This is the only swing state where you have a statewide candidate doing so poorly,” mused one North Carolina Republican operative, referring to Robinson and speculating on a possible reason the Trump campaign is particularly concerned about his odds here. Public polling has consistently shown Robinson lagging behind Democratic nominee Josh Stein by as much as 15 percentage points.
But the GOP has plenty of other data points on its side to give it confidence that Republicans have the upper hand. They’ve been buoyed by early voting results showing continued Democratic underperformance, particularly in the heavily Democratic Charlotte area. There, the party has seen lagging turnout in recent elections among voters, a trend that has not shown strong signs of improving this year.
“Republicans are well-positioned coming out of early vote — and doing something historical, having more votes banked than Democrats,” said Jason Simmons, chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, in an interview. “As you look at every county across North Carolina, Democrats do not have more votes than they did in ’20, out of each and every one of these counties.”
The crowd here erupted in cheers as Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) announced that early voting, which concluded here Saturday afternoon, has resulted in a “50,000- ballot margin over the Democrats.”
Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, urged everyone in the venue to take 10 friends to vote Tuesday “and put them on the board” to elect Trump.
And Michael Whatley, chair of the Republican National Committee and former chair of the North Carolina GOP, spoke in a serious tone when he asked the crowd to “commit right here and right now to 50 minutes,” in which they call 10 people and speak to them for five minutes each about the importance of voting for Trump.
A senior Harris campaign official on Friday told reporters, on condition of anonymity, that “there’s a lot of signs that suggest to me that they’re pretty worried” about the state, citing the Trump campaign’s decision “to spend so much time in North Carolina.” Harris on Saturday held her own rally in Charlotte.
“Very clearly, North Carolina is a state that Donald Trump needs to win,” said Doug Heye, a former spokesperson for the Republican National Committee and a native of the Tar Heel state. “If he loses it, that path becomes very difficult for him, and I think he’s going to win. But it’s been close both times.”
Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by 1.5 points, a closer margin than his nearly 4-point win here in 2016. The last Democrat to win the state in a presidential contest was Barack Obama in 2008.
Donning a “Women for Trump” hat, Faye Roberts, 74, of Whitsett, said she believes Trump’s win here will be “a landslide” — but she said she thinks some, possibly including Trump, are still worried about turnout in the state.
“If you listen to the news, he's losing,” Roberts said. “But if you listen to my heart, he's winning.”
She said she personally doesn’t know anyone who is voting for Harris.
“He feels like a lot of people are not voting,” Roberts continued, speculating why the former president is spending so much time here before the election, “and because he hears the polls, or he hears the news, and he still had that feeling.”
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