Two weeks after her firm incorrectly found Vice President Kamala Harris surging in increasingly red Iowa, pollster J. Ann Selzer said Sunday she is leaving election polling and ending her longstanding relationship with the Des Moines Register, which dates back to 1997.
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer wrote in an op-ed for the newspaper.
The final Des Moines Register poll, released the Saturday before the election, found Harris (47 percent) and Donald Trump (44 percent) neck and neck, a shocking result in a state not considered competitive. According to unofficial results, Trump won Iowa by 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,” Selzer wrote. “It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.”
The Iowa poll has taken on a near-mythical status over the past two decades, mostly driven by the state’s role in the presidential nominating process. It was the only survey to nail the order of Democratic candidates in the 2004 caucuses. Selzer’s final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucus-goers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory.
Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge in the final days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.
"The first time he ever broke double digits was our first night of interviewing in the final poll,” Selzer recalled to POLITICO earlier this year. “And then the next night, it was more. And the next night, it was more. And the next night, it was more. And even though the average ended up being, I think, 15 percent, the trajectory was what the story in the Register got written about, which is that Rick Santorum could surprise. And he ended up winning.”
Selzer has had success in general elections, too. In 2014, the final Register poll in the Iowa Senate race showed Republican Joni Ernst with a 7-point lead, contrary to other polls that showed a much closer race with Democrat Bruce Braley. Braley’s campaign decried the poll, calling it an “outlier.” But Ernst won by 9 points.
And four years ago — when both Trump and now-President Joe Biden were competing in Iowa — she found Trump and Ernst significantly ahead in their races, despite other polling showing a virtual tie. Both Republicans won comfortably.
So far, a review of the final 2024 poll hasn’t revealed an obvious culprit for missing Trump’s runaway victory in the state, the paper said Sunday.
The Register is “evaluating the best ways to continue surveys that will provide accurate information and insight about issues that matter to Iowans,” the paper’s editor, Carol Hunter, wrote in a column published Sunday. “The Iowa Poll has been an important legacy indicator and we recognize the need to evolve and find new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”
For the first time since the late ‘90s, Selzer won’t be involved — even as the state is poised to play a key role in the next presidential race. While the Democratic nominating calendar remains in flux, the Iowa caucuses are likely to be the first contest on the Republican side, with Trump constitutionally ineligible to seek a third term.
In a career of seeing trends that others missed, Selzer says she’s always trusted her data, even when it’s put her on an island compared to other pollsters.
“My integrity means a lot to me,” she wrote Sunday. ”To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships."
Selzer’s unwavering commitment to following the data has created some nervous moments in her career, especially as election polling has become more difficult over the past decade.
“When I go to bed the night before caucus, I think, ‘There’s nothing I regret. There isn’t something I could have done that I should have done,’” Selzer told POLITICO in 2015. “So we may not get it right the next time, but I’ve said that the last several elections because it is getting harder. But what I can do is pledge to my clients I will take my best shot.”
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